By Guy Saxton:

Global markets are not just in a cyclical rebound; they are marching into a commodity supercycle that is expected to last for several decades.

This dynamic represents a profound repricing of physical assets, anchored in two structural pillars: the acceleration of urbanization and the relentless demand for global decarbonization.

For the forward-thinking investor, the combination of factors such as long-term demands, historically low investment in mining, and a favorable regulatory environment creates a unique opportunity.

Critical and strategic minerals assessments remain disassociated from fundamentals, indicating a clear potential re-rating for those who allocate capital now.

The valuation distortion is evident: mining companies trade at 0.9x annual revenue, while tech companies reach 8.9x.

This means that mining revenue receives only one-tenth of the technological multiple, despite its greater strategic relevance and resilience. This persistent gap signals an entry opportunity for value investors.

The Paradox of the Multiple: Value vs. Cash Flow

The price discrepancy between the mining and tech sector has reached a point that is difficult to justify.

While the combined market value of the world’s largest miners in 2025 is $1.85 trillion, less than one-eighth the value of the top five American big techs, cash return metrics tell a very different story.

Mining companies have an average dividend yield of 5.45%, a performance that borders on structural, compared to the meager 0.37% offered by the technology giants.

On the revenue side, the distortion deepens: miners trade at 0.9× of annual revenue, while technology companies are close to 8.9×.

In short, a dollar of mining revenue is valued at only one-tenth of the multiple of a dollar of tech revenue, despite its superior revenue profile and strategic relevance.

For those seeking value and resilient cash flows, this persistent discount is the entry point.

The re-rating of mining assets is inevitable

By 2050, an additional 1.86 billion people will migrate to urban centers, which is expected to skyrocket annual steel consumption to 2,500 million tons and copper demand to 60 million tons. Satisfying this expansion requires a 60% increase in global material extraction.

The problem is on the supply side. Resource quality is declining—the global average copper grade has fallen by 42% since 1991. This forces producers to process 44% more ore to deliver the same amount of metal.

The share of this mining company doubled in value after Maduro was arrested: understand
Worse, the development time for a new large mine exceeds 16 years. Even with current exploration spending, the new offering is not expected to hit the market until the mid-2030s. These structural constraints signal a prolonged period of scarcity and consequent price support.

Green mining as a quasi-sovereign asset

Within the spectrum of critical minerals, high-grade iron (HBI and pellet, for example), produced with clean energies, emerges as a strategic material.
It is capable of reducing emissions from the steel industry by up to 95%, making it essential for low-carbon steel supply chains.

Crucially, the demand for this input is not cyclical, but rather anchored in government policies. Big players like Microsoft inbuilding their data centers already require near-zero steel, converting green iron from a basic input to a compliance-driven need.

Regulatory support is undeniable, and gives these assets infrastructure characteristics. In Europe, the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) imposes costs on high-emission steel imports, giving low-emission products a structural price advantage and built-in inflation protection.

On the U.S. side, the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) and the Defense Production Act (DPA) provide offtake guarantees in key sectors and, in some cases, set minimum prices. Separate rare earth oxides, for example, benefit from a reference price of US$110/kg.

The result is that certain critical and strategic minerals projects gain a quasi-sovereign asset profile, with minimal revenue visibility.

Revenue Visibility: The Predictable Risk-Return of Critical Minerals

In this new environment, mining offers a more predictable risk-return profile, supported by demand driven by long-term policies and supply constraints.

Its performance is less tied to traditional commodity cycles and more aligned with structural requirements for electrification and infrastructure expansion.

The tenfold valuation disparity between technology and mining, combined with mandatory demand growth and high premiums for secure supply chains in Brazil’s Carajás and Salinas regions, sets up the sector as a central allocation.

Resources are no longer a peripheral coverage. They offer lasting value, inflationary protection, and resilient cash flows.

Guy Saxton is president and co-founder of Brazil Iron, an Anglo-Brazilian mining company at the head of the Ferro Verde Project. Focused on the production of high-purity ore in Bahia, the company is at the head of the Ferro Verde Project. Focused on the production of high-purity ore in Bahia, the company is a key player in the decarbonization strategy of the global steel chain.