PutDomingos Zaparolli — For Valor, from São Paulo
29/04/2026

The outlook is positive for the Brazilian mining industry in 2026. In the first quarter of the year, the sector’s revenue reached R$ 77.9 billion, representing a 6% growth compared tothe same period last year, according to data from the Brazilian Mining Institute (Ibram).

The year 2025 was already considered good by the sector, with revenues of R$ 298.8 billion, an increase of 10.3% compared to 2024. Exports totaled US$ 46.12 billion.

For 2026, Ibram projects a scenario of record-breaking mineral exports in Brazil, driven by high global demand for store-of-value assets, such as gold, and strategic minerals for the energy transition. “We are going to have a very positive year,” says Pablo Cesário, CEO of Ibram.

The expansion of the sector’s revenue mainly reflects the appreciation in the international market of some of the main items in Brazil’s mineral export portfolio. The price of gold rose 70% when comparing the first quarters of 2025 and 2026. The country earned US$ 2.34 billion from exports of the precious metal in the first
three months of the year, an 89% increase compared to the same period in 2025. In volume, exports grew 8.7%, with 18.3 tons shipped.

“The rise in the price of gold was abrupt and strong; it may recede slightly in the coming months, but it will not return to previous levels. There has been a change in level,” says consultant Afonso Sartorio, leader of energy and natural resources at EY. According to Sartorio, gold will continue to generate good results for Brazil’s trade balance.

Copper, a strategic mineral for the energy transition due to its high electrical and thermal conductivity, registered a 37.5% increase in its international price between the first quarters of 2025 and 2026, and the expectation is that this upward trend will continue throughout the year. In the first three months of 2026, the metal positioned itself as the third item in Brazil’s mineral export portfolio, with international sales of US$ 1.58 billion, a growth of 65.7% compared to the first quarter of last year.

Exports of niobium, the country’s fourth most exported substance, totaled US$604 million in the first quarter, an increase of 13.6% compared to the same period in 2025.

Iron ore, the main item in Brazil’s mineral export portfolio, maintains a stable international price, registering an average of US$104 per ton in the first quarter of this year. Exports of the metal in the period totaled US$6.15 billion.

In 2025, the country recorded a record with international shipments of 416.4 million tons of iron ore, a 7.1% increase compared to the previous year, but revenue obtained abroad fell by 3%, generating US$ 28.96 billion. For 2026, Ibram estimates an export volume equivalent to that of 2025, but warns that revenue from international sales may again suffer a slight decline in the year.

The year 2025 marked the start of iron ore mining activities at the Simandou Project in Guinea, owned by Rio Tinto and a consortium of Chinese companies. The ore is high-grade iron (65º) and has a production capacity of 120 million tons per year.

Gold will not return to previous values. There has been a shift in level. Afonso Sartorio

According to Sartorio, the Simandou Project will create a new equilibrium in the market, with high-quality ore produced in Guinea replacing older, low-grade iron ore deposits, mainly in Australia. Vale ‘s production is expected to be little affected. The Brazilian company projects producing between 335 million and 345 million tons of iron ore in 2026. Last year, it produced 336 million tons.

Vale’s investment guidance for 2026 is estimated between US$5.4 and US$5.7 billion. Of this total, US$3.9 billion will be allocated to iron ore production and the remainder to the company’s copper and nickel operations.

Ibram forecasts that investments in mining in Brazil will total US$76.9 billion by 2030. The projected investment in iron ore is US$19.8 billion. Copper is the second most attractive substance for investors, at US$8.62 billion.

British company Brazil Iron is developing a greenfield iron ore project integrated with a hot-roled iron (HBI) production unit, also known as green iron, which, due to its purity exceeding 93%, provides a reduction in greenhouse gas emissions in the steelmaking process. The investment is US$5.7 billion.

The project, which is still subject to environmental licensing, includes iron ore extraction at a mine in Piatã (BA) and a processing unit near the future Porto Sul, planned for Ilhéus, Bahia. The company’s forecast is to begin operations in 2030, with a capacity of 5 million tons per year of HBI destined for export. “We already have ten years of production fully sold,” says Emerson Souza, the company’s vice president of institutional relations.

In Carajás, Pará, the Canadian company Ero Copper, in partnership with Base Metals (VBM), is developing the Furnas Copper-Gold Project. The estimated investment is US$1.3 billion. The project is expected to produce,
on average, 70,000 tons of copper, 111,000 ounces of gold, and 532,000 ounces of silver per year.

The investment decision has not yet been officially announced by the partners, but it has received a favorable opinion. “It’s a very attractive project from a financial standpoint, requiring low capital density for a mine with a 24-year lifespan,” says Makko DeFilippo, CEO of Ero Copper. Implementation will take three years. “The world needs copper for the energy transition, and it needs it now. Brazil is an important place to meet this demand,” he says

The world needs copper for the energy transition, and it needs it now.

Photo: Divulgação

Source: Gold and copper are driving the increase in exports this year.