By Domingos Zaparolli, for Valor — São Paulo
19/08/2026

Brazilian iron ore exports are on track to set a new record in 2026, after reaching their highest level ever in 2025, when international shipments totaled 416.4 million tonnes (Mt). In the first half of 2026, 189.4 Mt were shipped, 2.4% more than in the same period last year.

Revenue from iron ore exports totaled US$13.43 billion in the first half of the year, an increase of 5.2% compared with the same period in 2025. In addition to higher volumes, the appreciation of the commodity also contributed to the increase in revenue. The average price achieved by Brazilian exporters during the first six months of the year was US$104.75 per tonne, up 3.7% from the first half of 2025. The figures were provided by the Brazilian Mining Institute (Ibram).

Vale, the country’s largest mining company, produced 153.9 Mt and recorded total iron ore sales of 148.4 Mt during the first half of the year, an increase of 3.5% compared with the previous year. In 2025, the company produced 336 Mt, and its production guidance for 2026 ranges from 335 Mt to 345 Mt.

Globally, seaborne iron ore trade totaled 1.77 billion tonnes in 2025, according to S&P Global. China accounted for 75% of shipments. Australia led international sales with 977.2 Mt, while Brazil ranked second.

“Market estimates indicate that global demand will remain at roughly the same level through 2030, perhaps with a slight decline, but without a significant impact on international prices, which are expected to remain around US$100 per tonne for ore with a 61% iron content,” says Daniel Sasson, commodities analyst at Itaú BBA.

Stability in demand and commodity prices is a consensus among analysts, despite some signs of a slowdown in the market. Global steel production fell 2% in 2025, totaling 1.85 billion tonnes, according to the World Steel Association. In China, the decline was even sharper, at 4.4%, bringing production to 960.8 Mt.

However, the World Steel Association forecasts growth in steel production and consumption in several countries. India expects to double its steel production by 2030, reaching an annual output of 300 Mt. Vietnam, Indonesia, Malaysia, Egypt, Algeria, Nigeria and the United States are among the other countries expected to increase production in the coming years.

On the iron ore supply side, 2025 marked the beginning of the ramp-up of one of the world’s largest mining projects, Simandou, in Guinea, owned by Rio Tinto and a consortium of Chinese companies. Production is expected to reach 120 Mt per year by 2030. The ore has a high iron content of 65%.

According to Sasson, Simandou will not create an oversupply of iron ore. “It will simply replace depleted or low-productivity mines, particularly in Australia,” the analyst says. Estimates indicate that the depletion of older mines will remove around 3% of global production from the market, equivalent to between 50 Mt and 55 Mt per year. Over four years, that represents more than 200 Mt. “Simandou will add 120 Mt per year, but we will still need new sources of supply to maintain the balance,” Sasson says.

Brazilian producers are positioning themselves to meet global demand. Ibram projects that investments in iron ore mining in Brazil will total US$19.8 billion through 2030. At Vale, the country’s largest mining company, the 2026 investment guidance for iron ore is US$3.9 billion. The company’s stated target is to reach production capacity of 360 Mt by 2030.

Cedro Mineração plans to increase its production capacity to 20 Mt by 2032. Operating two mines, one in Nova Lima and another in Mariana, Minas Gerais, the mining company currently produces 7 Mt per year. The project will be developed gradually. The first phase involves investments estimated at US$700 million to increase production capacity in Mariana from 5 Mt to 7 Mt by 2028. In a second phase, for which no budget has yet been defined, the company plans to expand production in Mariana to 10 Mt per year. The remainder of the production increase will come from new areas acquired in the south-central region of Minas Gerais.

Cedro’s focus is on the production of pellet feed, a product with an iron content above 55% and low levels of impurities. “It is a product that enables steel production with lower greenhouse gas emissions and generates savings of US$15 to US$20 per tonne,” says José Carlos Martins, Chairman of Cedro’s Board of Directors. In the international market, pellets command a premium of between US$10 and US$15 per tonne.

Cedro’s production is currently sold in the domestic market, either to local steelmakers or to mining companies that produce blends for export. “With annual production of around 20 Mt, we will have the scale to participate directly in the international market,” Martins says.

Samarco has announced an investment of R$13.8 billion, the largest in its history, to increase its iron ore pellet production capacity from 15.1 Mt to 26 Mt by 2030. In practice, the mining company will return to the production capacity it had until 2015, before the environmental disaster caused by the collapse of the Fundão dam in Mariana, Minas Gerais, which resulted in deaths and extensive socio-environmental damage along the Doce River and as far as the coast of Espírito Santo. The compensation and remediation agreement reached with public authorities amounts to R$170 billion, of which R$80.4 billion has already been disbursed to repair the damage and compensate affected families.

Today, Samarco’s tailings are dry-stacked, eliminating the need for a tailings dam. The investments include the refurbishment of concentration assets at the Germano complex in Mariana, where the ore is processed to achieve an iron content of 66%, as well as the refurbishment of two of the company’s four pelletizing plants in Ubu, Espírito Santo.

“There is strong global steel industry interest in iron ore pellets because of the material’s ability to help decarbonize the production process,” says Rodrigo Vilela, CEO of Samarco. “While one tonne of steel produced using iron ore sinter generates 600 kg of CO₂ emissions, the same tonne produces 80 kg of CO₂ when pellets are used,” he says. The executive estimates that the international iron ore pellet market will grow from the current 120 Mt to 250 Mt by 2030.

In Bahia, Brazil Iron is developing an integrated iron ore production project in Piatã, as well as a hot-briquetted iron (HBI) production facility in Ilhéus. HBI has a purity level above 93% and also provides a significant reduction in greenhouse gas emissions during the steelmaking process.

The investment totals US$5.7 billion. The company expects to begin operations in 2030, with an annual HBI production capacity of 5 million tonnes. All production will be destined for export. “We already have ten years of production sold under commercial agreements,” says Emerson Souza, Vice President of Institutional Relations at Brazil Iron.

Source: Mining Sector Prepares for a New Record in Brazilian Iron Ore Exports